However, this Russian argument is misleading at best and dangerous at worst. For a start, Kosovan independence was recognised only after a long period of UN governance of the region. In Abkhazia and South Ossetia, on the other hand, there was no such presence (aside from a few unarmed
observers). For the past fifteen years South Ossetia, and to some extent Abkhazia, have been under defacto Russian control. And whilst Kosovo’s independence, whether justified or not, is truly that, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are little more than Russian puppet regimes. The leaders of both
regions openly campaigned for Putin’s United Russia party and South Ossetian ‘separatists’ openly advocate joining the Russian Federation. To put this in perspective, imagine Hashim Thaci, the Kosovan Prime Minister, campaigning for the Republican Party and calling for Kosovo to become the
51st state of the USA. In fact, the terms of Kosovo’s independence bans them from ever joining neighbouring Albania.

However the biggest difference between the two situations establishes a far more worrying precedent. NATO’s intervention in Kosovo occurred as a response to proven cases of ethnic cleansing i the region. Milosevic was responsible for the mass murder of not only Albanians in Kosovo but also
(through his allies Karadzic and Mladic of the “Republika Srpska”) of Bosniaks in the internationally recognised state of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Whatever his faults, Saakashvili is no Milosevic. Indeed, the Georgian government has taken major steps to integrate ethnic minorities into the Georgian polity. For example Georgian state TV airs news broadcasts in the Armenian, Azeri, Abkhaz and Ossetian languages and ballot papers were
available in these minority languages during the Presidential and Parliamentary elections earlier this year. In fact, the Georgians had offered the Abkhaz and Ossetians wide autonomy and the post of Vice
President with the power to veto legislation affecting those regions. Russian allegations of “genocide” have proved to be groundless; even the Russians themselves have admitted that the total body count in South Ossetia is under 200, whereas previously they were claiming that over 2000 civilians had been killed.

However when ethnic cleansing has occurred in Georgia, it has invariably been ethnic Georgians who have been the victims. At the time of the last Soviet census in 1989 46% of the population of Abkhazia was ethnic Georgian compared to the 17% that was ethnic Abkhaz and the 14% that was ethnic Russian. After the 1993 war, almost the entire Georgian population was expelled or murdered by Russian backed Abkhaz guerrillas in what has been recognised by the UN General Assembly and the OCSE as an act of ethnic cleansing. In South Ossetia, the entire ethnic Georgian population
has been expelled as a result of the Russian invasion. Russia openly admits that it will not allow ethnic Georgians to return to their homes for a long time to come. For this reason, Abkhazia and South Ossetia
cannot be compared to Kosovo; the better parallel by far is Radovan Karadzic’s genocidal ‘Republika Srpska’.

So therefore if the international community allow Russia to get away with what is a defacto annexation of Georgian territory, the message will be that ethnic cleansing is not only acceptable but rewarded. Why go through the bother of a democratic process when you can just murder and expel
those who disagree with you? Why be content with internationally recognised borders when the world will turn a blind eye to military aggression? The repercussions of this event will be tragic unless the
world wakes up to what is happening, moves beyond empty rhetoric and imposes severe sanctions on Russia.
Alexander Scrivener – an expert on Georgian politics.”

Giorgi Chikhladze
AEGEE-Tbilisi
PR committee
e-mail: giorgicn@caucasus.net, pr@aegee-tbilisi.ge
web: www.aegee-tbilisi.ge

23.08.08 12:58
It is the first day since Russian invasion and air attacks that the city
of Gori is free of Russian troops. The aggressors left the invaded
territories yesterday. Civilians are  returning to their homes, however,
the police urges them to be very careful as the mine clearing operations
are underway.
Vehicles have appeared in the streets of the city, which looked like an
abandoned one few days ago, and the local administration is distributing
the humanitarian aid, which has been delivered from various countries.
Georgian police is patrolling the streets of the city and the local law
enforcers are resuming control.

23.08.08 13:45
Despite their pullout from the city of Zugdidi, Russians remain in
Samegrelo Region. The aggressors began the pullout yesterday however, 210
tanks and military vehicles were seen on the way towards the breakaway
Abkhazia this morning.
Russians have left every administrative office which they had occupied
during the past ten days, but destructed everything inside these
buildings.
Russian illegal checkpoints are still operating in the towns of
Chkhorotskhu, Tsalenjikha and Khobi and the strategic heights they
occupied during the invasion.
Meanwhile, twelve Georgian soldiers, who were arrested by the aggressors
as they were guarding the Poti terminal remain in their captivity. They
had to be released at 12:00 today; however, the negotiations, which were
to be held at the 301-th peacekeeping checkpoint, have been postponed. The
captives are held on the Urta military base.

23.08.08 15:32
Deputy Chief of Russian General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsin has confirmed
that Russian armed forces are refusing to leave the city of Poti.
Nogovitsin said the situation in the Black Sea Waters was aggravating.
He said NATO member states continue to increase the number of naval forces
under the cover of necessity to deliver humanitarian aid.
According to Nagovitsin, the Poland and US naval frigates entered Bosporus
strait on 22 August in addition to the Spain and German naval frigates,
which entered water area on 21 August.
”I do not think it will contribute to stabilization of situation in the
region,” he said.

23.08.08 14:59
Cluster bombs [a bomb that throws out a number of smaller bombs or
antipersonnel projectiles when it explodes] were discovered in the city of
Gori during the mine clearing operations today. The bombs were found on
the territory of the Gori hospital. The experts are still clearing the
territory of the mines. The offices of prosecutor and the city court have
been mine cleared.

23.08.08 17:53
Reuters has reported that Russian army is keeping positions in Poti.
According to Reuters Russian occupants have established two checkpoints.
One of the checkpoints is at the entrance of Poti and another one on the
territory of free economic zone of Poti.

24.08.08 11:00
Russian president has said another lie to his French counterpart as
Russian troops remain outside the Georgia’s conflict regions until now.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged his Russian counterpart Dmitry
Medvedev to remove Russian troops quickly from the west of Georgia.
In the recent telephone call, Mr Sarkozy welcomed Friday’s withdrawal of
Russian troops, but told Mr Medvedev that Russian forces also needed to
leave the western towns of Poti and Senaki.
Administration of the French President released a statement after the
conversation with Medvedev, which said that OSCE international contingent
would substitute the Russia troops in the occupied territories which are
far beyond the borders of the conflict regions.

24.08.08 11:48
The train with gas containers was moving along the Gori-Khashuri sector of
the Georgian central railway, which passes accross the village of Skra,
when suddenly  fire broke out on whole train. The police fails to say what
caused the fire, but one of the version is that the splits of the land
mine which exploded on the military base located beside the railway,
reached the train and the evaporated flame of the oil caused the fire.

WE ARE WAITING… NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW!
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev promises French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy by phone to begin troop withdrawal on August 18. But they’re still here.

Giorgi Chikhladze
AEGEE-Tbilisi
PR committee
e-mail: giorgicn@caucasus.net, pr@aegee-tbilisi.ge
web: www.aegee-tbilisi.ge

Sorry for my late reply! We had some problems with internet connection!

You might have been hearing different rumors about what happened, most of which are lies and propaganda by Russian media. Here’s what really happened: Georgia has a province ‘South Ossetia’ which tried to separate from Georgia after Soviet Union fell early 1990ies (Soviet Union had occupied Georgia and it’s provinces for over 70 years) the attempt of separation of this province was masterminded in Russian government and backed for all these years. The separatist movement resulted a conflict between Georgia and it’s region ‘South Ossetia’, but in reality it was a conflict between Russia and Georgia. Russia brought it’s troops in the region for peacekeeping and supplied separatists with arms of unimaginable amount, which really was for control in the region. Since then Georgia tried multiple times to resolve the conflict peacefully offering separatist defacto government autonomy and everything they could have ever dream of, but resolved conflict never was in Russian plan as the idea was to annex and take away this land from Georgia. Russia’s current goal is to destabilize Georgia to prevent it from entering NATO as they have said: ‘We will do anything to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from entering NATO’. Recently, South Ossetian side carried out a Russian plan to provoke Georgia and pull it into conflict by bombing Georgian civilian villages for 11 days. Georgia did not respond, asked separatists to stop bombing, but they did not. Georgian government made a decision to carry out an operation to crack down on separatists militants who had been terrorizing region for a while now. Georgian forces forced the separatist militants out of their positions and they fled North to the Russian border. Russia responded by invading Sovereign country and bombing not only South Ossetian region, but entire Georgia.

Russia is bombing georgian cities, airports, railway, stadiums, civilian blocks, and everything that can be leveled to the ground. While international community stands by, thousands of civilians are wounded and
dieing from blasts coming from Russian tanks and air force. Russia has INVADED a democratic sovereign country!

Despite Medvedev’s Statement regarding Cease- fire, Georgia is being Bombed, Russian military units are destroying Georgian cities, Ossetians and North Caucasians go on marauding in villages.

Russian occupation troops continue to wage their barbaric war against Georgia. Russian military aircraft have dropped fire-setting bombs in the woods of the Borjomi district. Fire has now spread over 200 hectares of wood. Populated areas are also under threat. Unique ecosystem of the Borjomi gorge is being destroyed Immediate action is required to Stop Russia. United States, European Union, United Nations and others must do everything to stop this disaster as soon as possible. There is no time to stand by.

see:
NGNI
Report after war

Thanks for your interest!

Best regards,
Giorgi Chikhladze
AEGEE-Tbilisi
PR committee
Cell: (+99577) 502852
e-mail: giorgicn@caucasus.net, pr@aegee-tbilisi.ge
web: www.aegee-tbilisi.ge

Poland has ratified installation of parts of the American missile defence on its territory. The Russian side has immediately cancelled Polish-Russians talks about the Katyń massacre and cancelled the September visit in Poland. The tensions are getting bigger between Russia and other pro-Georgian countries, especially Ukraine and Estonia. Anatoliy Nogovitsyn, Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, stated that Poland makes itself a ’100% target of attack’ for its own wish. Russia hasn’t threatened Poland, Ukraine and Baltic countries such openly in years.

Medvedev finally showed Russia’s real aim by saying that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will never be a part of Georgia again and that Georgia can forget about its territorial integrity. What can I add.

Merkel slightly criticised and expressed her concern about Russian invasion on Georgia in a press conference in Sochi, still diplomatically mentioning that some of their actions were justified (while watching this conference me and I American friend could think only of the evacuation of women and children from South Ossetia as a justified action, but Merkel clearly used plural — we don’t know what else she could have meant). Maybe she meant bombing Georgian cities, including Gori, with cluster bombs, which are forbidden in over 100 countries because of how they kill civilians? The money Germany contributed to humanitarian aid was still a beautiful and really necessary gesture, but I can’t stop thinking about its cynism. German double play continues.

The Prime Minister of Turkey in his meeting with Putin ensured already that Russia can have its share in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Turkey is desperate to keep the pipeline undamaged and clearly a pact with Russia is an option.

The US finally called the situation its real name and asked Russia to respect Georgia’s territorial integrity. Condoleezza Rice warned Russia in those words: ‘This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia, where Russian tank threatened its neighbours, occupying the capital, overthrow the government and get away with it; things have changed.’ Some economical and political sanctions towards Russia are discussed.

In my eyes the biggest inside problem in Georgia at the moment are the anti-Saakashvili moods. Some people I talk to blame Saakashvili directly for provoking Russia to invasion resulting in the humanitarian crisis. Making people believe that the invasion was provoked by the Georgian side is Russia’s biggest interest, because this can help to overthrow Saakashvili and his people. When this happens — it’s more then sure that a puppet pro-Russian president and government will be given power. Whatever the final verdict can be on entering South Ossetia by Georgian troops, Saakashvili had absolutely no choice and there’s proof for that – Russia would invade Georgia anyway. I can’t understand why many people, be it in the West or Georgia itself, use double standards and mention the ‘provocation factor’ as if Georgia was the only civilised country and Russia was a wild beast which can attack any moment and that everyone should be afraid of. I wish Russia to enter the 21st century and make its policy stand up to the times we’re living in. And as for Georgia, I would wish everyone to remember the national motto ‘The strength is in unity’ and don’t be foolish enough to tear a 4 million country with internal conflicts while it’s occupied, bombed and disintegrated.

Why is Saakashvili so stubborn? Georgia is a multi-ethnic, multi-confessional country. The ethnic nationalism is very strong among all ethnic groups and this is Georgia’s weakness. However, if we can neutralise those nationalisms, the democracy will become very strong. Georgia has no tradition of democracy — Georgian social democracy has existed only 3 years before annexation by Russia in 1921. The Georgian parties are now radical and weak and the European style of parties needs to be developed. The goal is to become a member of Europe — a modern nation. Democracy is the only choice, otherwise the only thing we’re going to fail. What is an alternative to a long-lasting democracy? It’s only a regime or an empire — both are impossible in Georgia and anyway they would be only temporary. Georgia has to fight with Russian economical pressure, Georgians’ own backwardness and their ethnic antagonisms. Saakashvili’s team has made the development more dynamic and the only guarantee of irreversible, democratic development is Georgia’s accession to the EU and NATO.

If Georgia stays with Russia there will never be a democracy. Georgia will become a strategic, manipulated puppet-state. That’s why Georgian opposition to Russia is not just russophobia; it is the imperative.

Why can Russia do whatever they want to? Because Germany lets them. Gerhard Schröder has disgraced whole nation for friendship with Vladimir Putin and his acceptance of Russian offer to work for Gazprom (as the head of the shareholders’ committee of Nord Stream AG). Merkel, although she’s a bit better, continues Schröder’s politics. Her origin is in a family of Eastern German collaborators. The question if Schröder himself is a Russian collaborator remains open. German Social Democrats have always served Stalin, then the Soviet Union and finally modern day Russia. The arguments they use against Georgia is that ‘Saakashvili is not balanced, he tries to irritate Russia’…

What happened with the Road Plan of NATO for Georgia? In fact it was nothing — just a ‘booked ticket’ for a flight that could as well never happen. Germany said ‘NO’. Then France started to hesitate and play their games without making any meaning, the Netherlands mentioned their own business and pointed out ‘no democracy’ in Georgia and finally Berlusconi called Putin his brother. As a matter of fact if Merkel said ‘yes’ — everyone else would agree.

Putin understood then well that he can make what he wants. Very soon after the NATO top-meeting he made Abkhazia and South Ossetia de facto Russian giving Russian citizenship to all inhabitants and established self-called ‘Russian Peace Corps’. As we can see from the history, Russian military operations are always based on railway — that’s why a railway was re-built in South Ossetia (or maybe it was Putin’s good heart to built a railway to a remote mountainous region inhabited by 30.000 people?) and a new railway was built in Abkhazia. Russians were first trying to provoke in Abkhazia, but then in the eyes of the international community they started to act like they were ‘a part of solution’ and kicked off with their plan is South Ossetia.

Georgian villages in South Ossetia are situated on the way from Russian border to Tskhinvali. As the villages became cut off by Ossetians, tensions started — shelling of each other’s villages etc. Temur Iakobashvili, the State Minister for Reintegration, called the Russian Peace Corpse’s commander to ‘stop Kokoity’, the President of South Ossetia. The general answered that the situation went out control and that he has lost influence on Kokoity. Georgia called then Ossetians directly for ceasefire. Saakashvili decided then to start a moratorium — 3 hours of not shelling, so that civilians could leave, and entered South Ossetia. He had no choice, as the first column of ‘volountary’ fighters from Northern Caucasus had entered South Ossetia already and the Georgian population from this region was accusing Saakashvili of not defending them. By the voluntary fighters we mean of course mercenaries — most cruel and fierce soldiers. Ossetians ignored Georgian propositions of broad autonomy guaranteed by Russia and full amnesty — they responded with fire instead. Ossetians were reported to shoot even to Russian Peace Keepers, so it would look like Georgians were shooting — Georgians had absolutely no order of shooting to the Peace Corpse. Georgians took Tskhinvali in two days, but then Russian bombings started and Georgian army had to move out. Most people died in Russian bombings and the shelling which came next.

Three élite Russian divisions entered South Ossetia — Pskov (stationing by the Estonian border), Ivanovo and a special killer unit from Moscow called Razvedatelny Polk. A supersonic bomber plane TU-22 has been shot down by Georgians — the pilot, Zinov, is now in Georgian hands and said that he was just ‘taking photos’. Even Russian newspapers asked who possibly goes to take pictures with such plane as TU-22? Russians managed to mobilise whole their army in 24 hours, which in normal circumstances would be impossible as the army is in terrible state — it is corrupted and constantly drunk. Putin was at the time in Beijing and could pretend that he knew nothing about the war that started and the whole action was a surprise, ‘a well-planned Georgian action’.

Georgian think tank was in such shock that they mobilised all reservist and sent them to different regions of Georgia — and that was the only Georgian mistake. The reservists had no weapons and they went to the bombed cities without any special purpose. Many of them died. It wasn’t a direct Saakashvili order — the person (‘idiot’) who was in charge of the reservists has already been dismissed and we can except his trial in future.

It is absolutely clear that Russians couldn’t transport all their forces in one day and that the whole action had been carefully planned in advance. The evacuation of the children from South Ossetia was an obvious sign of that. Many people died, but not as much as a few thousand. 90% of the wounded in Georgian hospitals are military and the order was to not kill the civilian population. Russians didn’t kill Georgian civilians themselves in South Ossetia, but they let Ossetians do that — the scale was large enough to speak about ethnic cleanings.

The Georgian opposition is mostly full of snakes, but a couple of decent people can be found. Irakli Okruashvili called Saakashvili from France and said ‘Take me as a reservist!’ Naterashvili from the Labour Party is paid by Russians — it is know because it was recorded when he called Moscow and ask ‘why haven’t I received the money yet?’ Russia understands the anti-Saakashvili sentiments within the nation, they understand that many people blame him for death of reservists and the incompetent, unprepared military action. Nevertheless, if Russians overthrow Saakashvili and its people — it would be the end of Georgian chances for democracy.

In the moment I was listening to the lecture, Russian army was looting, raping women and killing resistance in Gori and nearby villages. They were setting fire in the villages. Western Georgia is being occupied — we had reports about looting of Zugdidi and Senaki. In this very moment when I’m writing those words Russian army is approaching Tbilisi. George W. Bush stated that US humanitarian action will arrive to Georgia. All I can say now — it’s not going to be peaceful night.

Based on a lecture by Aleksandre Rondeli. He claimed that I can quote him because he’s already on the first place of Russia’s black list and he has nothing to lose. He only asked not to publish one confidential military information — all I can say is that it’s another proof of Georgian think tank’s astonishment and lack of preparation to the operation.

Yesterday the six presidents spoke to the crowd gathered at the Parliament. It was very uplifting and Georgians admired their courage. Many Polish, French, Ukrainian, Latvian, Estonian and Lithuanian flags were waving, but I could spot also Azerbaijani, Czech and Greek flags. Many foreigners, who decided to stay in Georgia, could be easily spotted.

Russia keeps ignoring all truce proposals and spreading its propaganda of lies — f.ex. about bombing of South Ossetia, which, as I mentioned before, was conducted entirely by Russian air force — no Georgian plane dropped a bomb in this conflict. Russia cannot occupy the whole territory of Georgia, but it can paralyze the country keeping their tanks in a couple of strategic places.

]]> http://crisisingeorgia.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/medvedev-demands-new-status-quo/feed/ 0 p47zab http://crisisingeorgia.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/backgrounds-of-war-an-article-from-georgia-today-8-august-2008/ http://crisisingeorgia.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/backgrounds-of-war-an-article-from-georgia-today-8-august-2008/#comments Wed, 13 Aug 2008 08:13:59 +0000 p47zab http://crisisingeorgia.wordpress.com/?p=189 ]]> Today we present an article from ‘Georgia Today’ 8 August 2008. The author tries to explain how Ossetia looked like before the war started. Author: Nina Akhmetheli.

First site of 'Georgia Today' from 8 August 2008

 Georgia decided not to respond to fire from the separatists South Ossetia after heavy firing in the region on Thursday.

A few hours ago I as a supreme commander gave an order, a very painful order that none of Georgia’s military units open fire in response to the intense bombing.” said Georgia’s President Mikheil Saakashvili in a Televised address on August 7.

Saakashvili said that the constant provocations and murders in the region have begun occurring on as alarmingly large-scale and the situation is out of control. On 7^th August according to local media the evacuation of women and children from the region started while intensive fire was being reported from both sides.

“The snipers” war is continuing against the residents of the villages and at this movement while I am taking the intense fire is n now ongoing” said Saakashvili. “We have been in constant contact with the commander of the local Russian peacekeepers; they claimed that they totally lost control over separatists.” said Saakashvili.

The number of dead was not officially reported but a source in a the Georgian government on www.civil.ge says that about ten people, both servicemen and civilians, have been killed.

Saakashvili reiterated his proposal to offer unrestricted autonomy to South Ossetia, defending the right of the ethnic Ossetians and proposing the Russia Federation act as a guarantor of this autonomy. He also promised full amnesty to the separatists.

“I offer the hand of friendship and partnership to all of you despite the acts that have been commited by you” said Saakashvili.

Saakashvili called for immediate resumptions of talks in any type of format.

However, Tbilisi’s appeal hasn’t stopped the fighting from the Ossetian side according to local media.

The Russian Ministry of Defence demented information about taking over Poti yesterday, which has been quoted by Interfax and Reuters. Well — what my girlfriend says then must be another example of Saakashvili’s genocidal propaganda?

It is estimated that now 150.000 people are in the centre of Tbilisi, gathered in the are of the Parliament. At 20.00 the Presidents of Georgia, Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia and the Prime Minister of Latvia are going to meet.

Although Medvedev called the operation finished, three villages were still bombed: Ruisi, Sakorsiko and Agara. Gori was bombed yesterday again and I can’t find a logical strategic explanation to that. On the other hand the Zugdidi-operation has found its finale. As it was very difficult to enter Upper Abkhazia from the Abkhaz site because of high mountains, Russian tanks used the newly built way from Zugdidi to there and took the region without any resistance… because resistance would be hopeless.

The life in Tbilisi still looks pretty normal, although people clearly are worried and the war is topic number one. The Georgian TV stations keep showing movies like ‘Braveheart’, ‘Gladiator’, ’300′, etc. The public transport is working and everyone is trying to live their normal life. Rumours about panic and buying out everything from the shops are much exaggerated.

Now I would like to quote the famous Russian oppositionist Yulia Latynina’s statements about the situation and statehood of South Ossetia. The full article from 8 August can be found in this link.

There is no way the regime in South Ossetia can be in any sense called “separatist.” Who there is a separatist? The head of the local KGB, Anatoly Baranov, used to head the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian Republic of Mordovia. The head of the South Ossetian Interior Ministry, Mikhail Mindzayev, served in the Interior Ministry of Russia’s North Ossetia. The South Ossetian “defense minister,” Vasily Lunev, used to be military commissar in Perm Oblast, and the secretary of South Ossetia’s Security Council, Anatoly Barankevich, is a former deputy military commissar of Stavropol Krai. So who exactly is a separatist in this government? South Ossetian “prime minister” Yury Morozov?

(…)

South Ossetia is not a territory, not a country, not a regime. It is a joint venture of siloviki generals and Ossetian bandits for making money in a conflict with Georgia. For me, the most surprising thing in this entire story is the complete lack of any strategic goals on the part of the South Ossetians.

As soon as Russia tamped down the war in Abkhazia, tensions in South Ossetia started rising. South Ossetian forces start shelling Georgian villages, and as soon as Georgia returns fire, the airwaves are filled with accusations of “Georgian aggression.” No one pays attention to the fact that when this happens, Kokoity is not on the front lines or visiting the injured in a hospital — he’s 1,000 kilometers away in Abkhazia, apparently offering the Russian siloviki his people as hostages, as another card to be played to inflame the situation and make a few more dollars.

Again — nothing that is going on in South Ossetia makes any sense from the point of view of strategy. It only makes sense as a means of making money. And we aren’t talking about small sums. Running a gas pipeline through the mountains from Russia — a precaution in case Georgia decides to cut off the 70,000 residents — cost $570 million. And then there is the secret budget Russia has allotted for the struggle — estimated at somewhere around $800 million. And don’t forget the pensions and wages for state-sector workers, who officially number some 80,000 but whose actual numbers are not more than 30,000.

(…)

Whenever someone starts telling us about shelling in Tskhinvali, it is important to keep in mind exactly what Tskhinvali is. It is not a city somewhere in the middle of a republic that is being fired upon by saboteurs. On three sides, Tskhinvali is surrounded by Georgian villages. The edge of Tskhinvali is a military outpost. South Ossetian forces fire from there into the Georgian villages, and the Georgians respond with fire of their own. To help keep Georgian fire from hitting civilians in the city, all the South Ossetians would have to do is move their military base forward a couple hundred meters.

But, of course, it is a fundamental principle of terrorists the world over — set up firing points in civilian areas and then when your enemy fires on you, you gleefully parade the bodies of your own children in front of the television cameras. Kokoity’s terrorists are following this same principle. If South Ossetia can in any way be considered a state, it must be considered a terrorist state.

(…)

Even more surprising is the fact that the leaders of this region — despite all their talk — apparently have done very little to prepare for war and have turned out to be absolutely helpless. At the first sign of trouble, the general director of this joint venture hightailed it out of Tskhinvali. I was amazed to get news overnight that Russian journalists were hunkered down in the main government building and there wasn’t even a bomb shelter there. What does that mean? That all the money Moscow allocated for our joint venture never made it outside the Moscow ring road? They were all shouting “Wolf, wolf!” but they didn’t even manage to build a barn for the sheep?

(…)

It would seem that the siloviki really thought that there is nothing more to war than lying. Lying about “unprovoked shelling” and about wounded “civilians” who are shown on television wearing camouflage. They are still using this tactic: What are we to make of their claims during the night that Georgian airplanes had bombed a column of humanitarian aid coming out of the Roki Tunnel between North and South Ossetia? I’d like to know who was the Russian general who — on the very night when Saakashvili had been issued a moratorium and tanks and heavy equipment were moving from Russia to Tskhinvali — decided to clog up the only road with a humanitarian convoy. If there is such an idiot, he should, at the least, be demoted to the ranks. The siloviki supposed that the war would be won by the side that lied the most. Saakashvili knew that the war would be won by the one who won the war.

(…)

The main question in the current situation is what will Russia do now. There are two choices. One would be to get entangled in a full-scale war, which is what the siloviki have been trying to force Moscow to do for the last few months. It doesn’t matter to them who wins that war or how many victims there are. The mere fact of a war will mean that the siloviki will maintain their control over Russia. In fact, a defeat for Russia would be even better for the siloviki than a victory; there would be shouts, recriminations, hysterics, and — in the end — more money.

(…)

Dominik K. Cagara
student at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden
student of the Summer School in Kartvelology at Tbilisi State University

]]> http://crisisingeorgia.wordpress.com/2008/08/11/the-russian-army-enters-gori-and-senaki/feed/ 4 p47zab